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  Pennsylvania 500 Odds and Picks
 

There was great deal of excitement at the start of the New England 300. Brian Vickers, the pole sitter, had lost his lead by the end of the first lap. The second starter, Kasey Kahne, held the lead for a short time and then lost it. Within the first 50 laps, there were a handful of different leaders until Tony Stewart finally established himself and took the lead.

Not only did he take the lead. He grabbed it and he ran away with it. Driving a great car, Stewart looked like a man amongst the boys. He eventually ended up by leading for 232 of the 300 laps. On several occasions he was leading by six seconds. In fact, Stewart had no serious competition until the end of the race when Kyle and Kurt Busch both challenged him.

Most of the spectators seemed convinced that Stewart would climb the starter fence and collect another checkered flag. A great driver, he has been making this climb a regular affair on the Nextel Circuit.

Many strong performances were put out on Sunday, but none of them were comparable to Stewart’s. Kyle Busch ran in the “Top 5” for almost the entire race. Bobby Labonte hid under the radar for a third place finish. The only driver with a car that could have competed with Stewart was Kurt Busch. But his day was one filled with mishaps. He started fifth, but had to restart from the back after he spun out early in the race. He managed to move forward steadily, but then hit a series of poor pit stops which held him back. At one stage he did move up to second and put pressure on Stewart, but his attempts failed. Stewart really earned his victory.

Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. both recorded notable performances. Gordon was in position for a well needed “Top 5”, but, as we have seen too often in recent weeks, Gordon’s run of bad luck continued. His brakes went out as he was pushing for fifth place. He managed to finish the race, but way back in 25th place. Earnhardt moved steadily up the field to gain his third straight “Top 10”. It looks as though Earnhardt may be back on the right track.


This Week’s Preview - Pennsylvania 500

We are back in my old stomping grounds. This week’s Pennsylvania 500 is one of my favorite for betting. The time break between the two Pocono races is only six weeks. That is the shortest time interval between two races at the same track in the NASCAR series. That inevitably means that the drivers haven’t had time to destroy the cars that they drove here last time. Look for a lot of great repeat performances.

Take a close look at the results from last race here and you will see a lot of young guns, and I don’t necessarily mean the traditional ones. I mean drivers like Brian Vickers, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch. That does deter me from something that I mentioned earlier, “This week’s race is one of my favorite for betting.” I am a bit wary about laying big bets on young guns, but I will go with my instinct and recommend, and even lay some bets myself, on young and old alike. Note that there are some great betting opportunities with the Pennsylvania 500 odds.

Some of the more interesting thing to pay attention to when watching the race are the  four and five wide driving in the long stretch between turns three and one, lots and lots of passing. Drivers who step on the gas out of the turns will get great runs.


Winner’s Circle -- Pennsylvania 500 Odds and Pennsylvania 500 Picks

They Will Ride to Victory
Tony Stewart (6/1)

I cannot think of any good reason why you shouldn’t bet on him. He won here in 2003 and has finished in the “Top 10” in eight of 13 starts here. He has been lights out for the last five weeks, finishing in the “Top 5” in each race, including three wins. I think he is the Tiger Woods of the race track and I may just take him over the entire field.

 
Jimmie Johnson (6/1)

Despite the fact that his car wasn’t great last week, he still managed to push through for a decent finish. In my opinion he always manages to find a way to achieve a good finish. Johnson swept the two races here in 2004, so he definitely knows this track and I’m sure he will use that knowledge to do well here.

 
Carl Edwards (12/1)

This is the first of my trio of drivers in their first full year in the Cup Series. He has had only one start here, which makes his performance difficult to predict, but after all, he did win the race. Carl is currently on the outside looking in for the “Chase for the Cup”, and a good finish here could give him what he wants.

 
Brian Vickers (12/1)

Is this going to be the week when Vickers pulls off his first career victory? This year he has had the car to do it on a couple of occasions. He has had plenty of good races, but none of them really good enough. As mentioned previously, drivers should be bringing back the same cars from the last race here and for Vickers this means the car that led 121 of the 201 laps.

 
Kyle Busch (12/1)

This is the ‘young gun’ I really liked this week. I generally keep away from rookies, but there is something different about Kyle Busch. He has five “Top 5’s” in his last 10 races, including a fourth place in Pocono a few weeks back. He definitely has driving skills and his car is almost there. All that is needed is for everything to come together and he will be hard to beat.

 
Bobby Labonte (40/1)

He gets my vote for “sleeper of the week”. He has driven well and pretty much under the radar this year. He had a “Top 5” last week in a car that wasn’t the best. His record here lately is good and he has three career wins. He swept the races in 1999 and also took the checkered in 2001. For those who really like long odds and big reward bets, Bobby is for you.

 
Steer Clear of these drivers
 
Greg Biffle (6/1)

About as risky a recommendation as they come. This says it all - he hasn’t performed well at this track. In five starts his average finish is 18.4. That includes only one “Top 5”. It will be interesting to see if my thinking on this one is correct or not!

 
Jeff Gordon (12/1)

I like him, but I have to vote against him. When you recommend avoiding a driver with this much skill, it can come back to bite you. It’s not that Gordon himself doesn’t deserve your bet; the whole team doesn’t deserve it. Gordon’s problems continued to mount last week when he lost his brakes. Now the word is out around the track that unrest and dissatisfaction are developing among the crew.

 
Kasey Kahne (15/1)

Not for my money – he has been finishing in the 40’s more often than the “Top 10.” He did finish sixth last week, but that looked to be more of a stroke of luck than a pattern. That was his only “Top 10” finish since his win on May 14 at the Chevy. 

 
Michael Waltrip (20/1)

Waltrip, like McMurray, is in transition, and this puts him in a very difficult position. He has decided to leave DEI at the end of the year. The thing is the company is owned by Junior’s family. Waltrip has mentioned that he would like Tony Eury Jr, his crew chief, to come with him, but it is almost certain that DEI won’t allow this. And this is what will negatively affect him for the rest of the year.

 
Elliot Sadler (25/1)

I’ve been recommending staying away from Sadler all year and this week is no different. So far this year he has finished in the “Top 5” only once. True, he is high in the points chase but it is incorrect to associate that with wins. He started out last week with a good car but then he went and wrecked it.

 
Jamie McMurray (30/1)
Turmoil reigns in the McMurray camp. The rumors were true, he is leaving for Roush Racing in 2007, to take over the 6 car. Roush seems to think they can convince Mark Martin to stay one more year, but if not, they might try to get McMurray sooner. That makes it even worse for McMurray’s garage to pull together. I will be staying away from him for the rest of the year.

 

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