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The NBA season is just around the corner, which means it’s time to make some predictions about exactly which rookies will have an impact on the Association right from the start. Last year’s picks, Emeka Okafor, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Josh Childress and Luol Deng, made for an easy selection and it looks like this year’s selection will be easy as well. There are three lock-ins for All-Rookie Team and three others to keep your eyes on. Read on for the list.
NBA Rookies -- Freshman All-Stars:
Chris Paul (6-0 195 lbs.), PG, New Orleans/ OklaCity Hornets. The Hornets are basically guaranteed to place last as long as they are in the same division as the Spurs, Rockets, Mavericks and Grizzlies but, because it’s a young team with players such as Chris Paul and J.R. Smith, they will be a fun team to watch. Paul was outstanding at Wake Forest and will be given the reigns to the offense from the onset. He has great ball handling skills and playmaking ability but his FG percentage is a downside to his rookie campaign. Another point of concern for Paul is his size if he hits a rookie wall later in the season. With J.R. Smith at the 2-guard and a semi-reliable frontcourt Paul could be looking at a 17 point 5 assist 3 rebound per game average. He will get most of the minutes at the point, with Speedy Claxton spelling him. Paul, a former All-American, is a lock for the All-Rookie team and should be a top three finisher for Rookie of the Year.
Deron Williams (6-3 210 lbs.), PG, Utah Jazz. Williams, who was drafted one spot ahead of Chris Paul, is actually in a better place to succeed than is Paul. Utah can surround Williams with better talent than Paul will find on the Hornets, and Utah can offer Williams a better coach to teach him as well. The Jazz makes for a good fit for Williams because it will allow him to play to his strengths and won’t require that he change his game by much. Since Williams is not a natural scorer, it will be to his advantage if he can get the ball into the front court and then let Boozer, Krilenko and Okur take it from there. Jerry Sloan knows to take advantage of Williams’ defense and can put him in an excellent place to succeed. There are not other serious PGs on the Utah roster so we can expect Williams to log a lot of minutes as well as high assist numbers. His stat line will probably resemble his college numbers, 11 points and 7 assists per game.
Charlie Villanueva (6-11 240 lbs.), PF, Toronto Raptors.Charlie Villanueva has been moved from a 15-minutes-off-the-bench starter to a Power Forward since rumors started that Rafael Araujo was heading to the D-League and Chris Bosh was moving to center. His height and build are both major strengths in the East, not to mention that he has plenty of natural ability. With sufficient motivation, Villanueva could become a Rookie of the Year candidate. However, the chances of that happening will require a shift in attitude from a lackadaisical one to serious one.
Toronto could get a very formidable frontcourt with Villanueva playing alongside Chris Bosh. If he is a starter, assume 15 points 10 boards and 2 blocks a night, numbers that are very similar to Emeka Okafor's numbers last season. If he wants to succeed he will.
NBA Rookies -- Don't Sleep On:
Sarunas Jasikevicius (6-4 195 lbs.), PG, Indiana Pacers. Although it’s hard to choose between Jasikevicius and former Lithuanian teammate Arvydas Macijauskas, Sarunas ultimately turns out to be the better bet to log serious minutes for Rick Carlisle. Jasikevicius averaged 16 PPG in two seasons with Maccabi Tel Aviv in Israel and is a more mature player than other rookies just entering the league. In 2003, Jasikevicius lead the Euroleague in free throw percentage (92.5 percent) as well as three-point field goal percentage (57.0 percent); and was the Lithuania Player of the Year in 2002
Jakikevivius will work hard and hustle for the Pacers. He is a good off-ball defender and lights-out shooter. Most likely, Jasikevivius will start the year coming off the bench, but that will probably change if Tinsley gets injured and opens up the door for the starting spot, which Sarunas will be able to hold onto. Depending on his minutes, his stat line will vary, but we can expect at least 8 points and 3 assists even if it is from the bench.
Raymond Felton (6-1 198 lbs.), PG, Charlotte Bobcats. Felton is another one to add to your list of good Rookie guards and, of the six drafted Tar Heels, Felton has the best chance to make immediate impact. Felton is closer to a starter this year with only Brevin Knight ahead of him on the depth chart, but that may change come December. With some of the quickest hands on defense, Felton has averaged two steals per game in college. His excellent vision also helped him to take the lead in the ACC in assists with 6.9 per game last year. He should be able to avoid the rookie wall because of his size and approach to the game. Felton and Gerald Wallace together in the backcourt may help the Bobcats force a lot of steals and fast break points. A safe stat projection could read 8 points 4 assists 1.5 steals off the bench, or 14 points 7 assists and 2 steals as a starter.
NBA Rookies -- Stretch Play:
David Lee (6-9 249 lbs.), PF, New York Knicks. This may be a stretch since Larry Brown hates rookies, but then again, Lee isn’t just another project. His fundamental game is strong and he only has to beat out Malik Rose to be the starter in Gotham. If he can crack the starting five, he’ll have unlimited rebound possibilities because of poor shooting guards Jamal Crawford, Stephon Marbury, and Quentin Richardson. Lee averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds his senior year at Florida and it wouldn’t come as big surprise to see him at an easy 10 and 6. Since Eddie Curry isn’t great at rebounds, Lee’s ability to get rebounds will come in quite handy too. |
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